Africa's Statistical Tragedy

Shanta’s keynote speech at the IARIW-SSA conference on “Africa’s Statistical Tragedy” is among my favorites. It addresses a critical issue in Africa’s development: Statistical Reporting. No doubt, ‘bad’ African governments have tactless political incentive to contrive Statistics. Affirmation of the phenomena of the ‘statistical tragedy’ by the renowned World Bank economist is worthy of attention. A bolt-from-the-blue revelation of figures on economic growth and poverty reduction without a corresponding transparent and independent validation would be no more than an empty holler. Shanta asserts that African governments have continuously been perverting Statistics for political reasons.

He discusses,“The underlying problem that connects all of the other proximate causes is politics. Political factors standing in the way of Africa’s development of statistics the same way it stands in way of broad based sustained growth…the reason why this is similar to the obstacles to broad based growth is because those obstacles are also political. All the proximate obstacles to difficulties for achieving broad based growth in Africa such as infrastructure deficit, weak skills, lack of productive employment, or low productivity in agriculture; they all have their roots in politics.

The implication of these contrived statistics is extensive. It is actually much more dangerous since it limits the significance of research and decision making, unless the international community, citizens and the civil society do not have the privilege as well as the capacity to authenticate government Statistics. As Shanta has suggested, transparency and clarity in the Statistical procedures is a big first step to this end. Still, this also depends on “the good will” of African governments.