The Next Fifty Years - Africa

Yesterday(July 30, 2013), I attended an interesting discussion on “The Next Fifty Years of the African Union” at the Brookings Institution. The event was interesting not due to the ingenuity and grand plan of the African Union for the next 50 years, but because of the interesting reflections I experienced on African economies, especially from a World Bank Economist, Marcelo Giugale. There is a lot to complain about when it comes to the African Union. Yet, for now, the focus will be on concepts that I thought were useful, issues that I believed promote a better understanding of African economies. Thus, I will attempt to summarize and opine on few outstanding points raised during the discussion.

To be fair, growth in many African countries has remained generally robust over the past few years. However, uncertainties abound about both the sustainability of the ensuing growth as well as the responsiveness of poverty to the higher growth. Growth has to be sustainable and inclusive to deliver the best outcomes. The recent fast growth has been supported by various opportunities in the continent. Mr. Marcello has brilliantly presented opportunities; challenges and the way forward for the continent. I will mostly be channeling his perspectives from the conference. There are a few points raised that surmised opportunities that Africa has and can exploit to promote future progress.

• First, Africa has registered substantial progress in demographic trends including huge reductions in child mortality and malnutrition. Infant and under-five mortality has plummeted in many countries in the region in recent years. For example, according to UNICEF (2012), Sub-Saharan Africa has seen a faster decline in its under-five mortality rate, with the annual rate of reduction doubling between 1990–2000 and 2000–2011. The demographic dividend from an increasingly youth labor force is another encouraging demographic trend.
• Second, the discovery of natural resources has helped countries such as Angola and Zambia to grow faster.
• Another break in favor of Africa is the expectation that over the coming years (as has started to appear also recently), there will be a drain of low skilled Chinese manufacturing jobs towards Africa helping unemployment problems and boosting production and exports.
• A new development in the continent that has long been undermined especially by economists is the rise of an informed youth citizenry that could ignite forces of positive change and innovation.

The most important question remains, how would Africa be able to take advantage of these boons to address its challenges and move forward in the coming fifty years? To avoid being overcome by the grandiose idea of addressing all the challenges for the coming five decades, I will address few points I assumed would be essential.

• First, is the need to transform the agricultural sector or bring forth an African Agricultural revolution. There is ample evidence and knowledge on factors that have long fraught the African version of agricultural revolution other parts of the world has experienced early on. Though the list abounds, the issue of land reform should be elevated to ensure transformation in the agricultural sector.
• Second, is the need to address the defragmentation of Africa. African goods and service markets are highly fragmented. African nations are much more integrated with the rest of the world than among themselves. The number of African banks operating in other African countries is almost nonexistent. Mr. Marcello remarked that African food and service markets remain broken even within regional customs unions. The recurrence of food shortages and hunger in many parts of Africa could have simply been avoided through integration of food markets. Africa can actually feed itself with the proper integration of these markets.
• Third, and related to the above is the infrastructure framework in Africa. There is, at best, limited effort in coordinating infrastructure projects including roads, railways and power structures that could help promote long term developments. There is a need for a smart and well-coordinated infrastructure framework. Few huge infrastructure projects have become fiscal drains for these developing economies, putting into doubt their own future sustainability as well as their efficacy in the transformation of the continent.
• Finally, over the forgone decades, Africans have been grumpy about how they have been treated unfairly by the old colonial powers and their exploitative hegemony. However, the future of Africa will depend on how they treat each other. Political elites must be forced to unlearn to value the sense of invincibility, autocracy and the freedom from accountability. Social accountability frameworks need to be developed to bring about a more inclusive and equitable governance structures. Effective governments require societies and frameworks that demand change and hold governments accountable. It would probably be smarter to preach the concept of accountability rather than the concept of ‘political’ democracy since the later tends to send an unnerving message for those already in power (pun intended!).

It was not my intention to discourse on a complete list of issues facing the continent. But, this was only an attempt to highlight few fundamental issues raised during the discussion and those, I believed, need further deliberation. It is my strongest conviction that Africa faces enormous possibilities. But, whether we take advantage of these possibilities depends not on the rise of some enlightened leader or champion but on a more informed and enlightened citizenry. A more informed citizenry is much more conducive for progress, even in the absence of a complete democracy. To achieve this, we have to be able to put useful information in the hands of people in a way they understand.